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Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy
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  • Maria R.P. Sudibyo,
  • Eva Patricia Silke Eibl,
  • Sebastian Hainzl,
  • Gylfi Pall Hersir
Maria R.P. Sudibyo
University of Potsdam, University of Potsdam, University of Potsdam

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Eva Patricia Silke Eibl
University of Potsdam, University of Potsdam, University of Potsdam
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Sebastian Hainzl
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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Gylfi Pall Hersir
retired, retired, retired
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Abstract

A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute-long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions.