Modeling carbon accumulation and greenhouse gas emissions of northern
peatlands since the Holocene
Abstract
Northern peatlands are a large C stock and often act as a C sink, but
are susceptible to climate warming. To understand the role of peatlands
in the global carbon-climate feedback, it is necessary to accurately
quantify their C stock changes and decomposition. In this study, a
process-based model, the Peatland Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, is used
to simulate pan-Arctic peatland C dynamics from 15ka BP to 1990. To
improve the accuracy of the simulation, spatially-explicit water run-on
and runoff processes were considered, four different pan-Arctic peatland
distribution datasets were used, and a spatially-explicit peat basal
date dataset was developed using a neural network approach. The model
was calibrated against 2055 peat thickness observations and the
parameters were interpolated to the pan-Arctic region. Using the model,
we estimate that, in 1990, the pan-Arctic peatlands soil C stock is
396-421 Pg C, and the Holocene average C accumulation rate was 22.9 g
C•m-2 yr-1. Our estimated peat permafrost development history generally
agrees with multi-proxy-based paleo-climate datasets and core-derived
permafrost areal dynamics. During 500 BP to 1990, the pan-Arctic region
went through the Little Ice Age and Anthropocene warming. Under
Anthropocene warming, in the freeze-thaw and permafrost-free regions,
the peat C accumulation rate decreased, but it increased in permafrost
regions. Our study suggests that if current permafrost regions switch to
permafrost-free conditions in a warming future, the peat C accumulation
rate of the entire pan-Arctic region will decrease, but the sink and
source activities of these peatlands are still uncertain. permafrost.
Under Anthropocene warming, in the freeze-thaw and permafrost-free
regions, the peat C accumulation rate decreased, but it increased in
permafrost regions. This result suggests if permafrost regions switch to
permafrost-free conditions, the peat C accumulation rate of the entire
pan-Arctic region will decrease.