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Prediction of Atmospheric Noise Temperature at the Deep Space Network with Machine Learning
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  • Longtao Wu,
  • David D Morabito,
  • Joaquim Teixeira,
  • Lei Huang,
  • Hai Nguyen,
  • Hui Su,
  • Melissa Soriano,
  • Lei Pan,
  • Daniel S. Kahan
Longtao Wu
Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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David D Morabito
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Joaquim Teixeira
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Lei Huang
California Institute of Technology
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Hai Nguyen
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Hui Su
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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Melissa Soriano
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Lei Pan
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Daniel S. Kahan
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Abstract

Ka-band (32 GHz) communications links utilized by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) flight missions for science downlink are susceptible to degradation due to weather. In this study, a customized real-time forecast system has been developed to predict zenith atmospheric noise temperature (Tatm) at the Deep Space Network (DSN) tracking sites using machine learning (ML). A random forest model is trained with the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast and analysis datasets in addition to the Tatm measurements derived from on-site advanced water vapor radiometers (AWVR). The real-time forecast uncertainty is quantified for different error regimes using the Self-Organizing Map method. The results show that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the 24-hour Tatm prediction at Goldstone, CA increases with the increase of Tatm. Ninety percent of the forecasts have RMSE (bias) of less than 3.50 K (0.22 K) for fair-weather conditions with Tatm < 17 K. In comparison to the current approach in designing Ka-band communications links, application of weather forecasts can increase data return to the downlink for 80% of the time. A downlink gain of up to 1.61 dB (45% more data) can be realized at 20 elevation angle when Tatm = 9 K.