Machine learning-based detection of weather fronts and associated
extreme precipitation
Abstract
Extreme precipitation events, including those associated with weather
fronts, have wide-ranging impacts across the world. Machine
learning-based detection algorithms can help with the automated
classification of the synoptic-scale weather features that produce
extreme precipitation events, such as fronts. Here we use a deep
learning algorithm to identify weather fronts in high resolution
Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations over North America, and
validate the results using observational and reanalysis products. We
further compare results between CESM simulations using present-day and
future climate forcing, to study how fronts and extreme precipitation
might change with climate change. We find that detected front
frequencies in CESM have seasonally varying spatial patterns and
responses to climate change, and are found to be associated with modeled
changes in large scale circulation such as the jet stream. We also
associate the detected fronts with extreme precipitation, and find that
extreme precipitation associated with fronts mostly decreases with
climate change, with some seasonal and regional differences. These
changes appear to be largely driven by changes in the frequency of
fronts, especially in Northern Hemisphere winter, demonstrating that
extreme precipitation has seasonally varying sources and mechanisms that
will continue to evolve with climate change.