Seismological Characterization of the 2021 Yangbi Foreshock-Mainshock
Sequence, Yunnan, China: More than a Triggered Cascade
Abstract
The 2021 Mw 6.1 Yangbi earthquake in southwest China is
preceded by three major foreshocks: 05/18 Mw 4.3, 05/19
Mw 4.6, and 05/21 Mw 5.2. It provides a
valuable chance to revisit two end-member models describing earthquake
interaction: cascade-up and pre-slip model. We first determine the
associated fault structure with relocated aftershocks and focal
mechanisms obtained from multi-point-source inversion. We find that the
mainshock and two smaller foreshocks occur on an unmapped near-vertical
fault, and the largest foreshock occurs on a mapped stepover fault that
dips to NE. Secondly, for each major foreshock, we estimate and
delineate their rupture area based on aftershocks and spectral ratio
analysis. Based on the rupture model, we finally calculate the evolution
of Coulomb stress, with which to interpret the causality of each major
event. Results show that the Yangbi sequence can be explained by the
cascade triggering mechanism, while we also find evidence for aseismic
slip that contributes to the triggering process: the first foreshock is
preceded by a short-term localized cluster, and the aftershock zone of
the second foreshock extents through time. The nucleation of mainshock
is probably contributed by multiple major foreshocks through both
seismic and aseismic processes. This detailed seismological
characterization of Yangbi sequence lend supports for a deeper
understanding on the foreshock mechanism: (1) the controlling mechanisms
are not limited to cascade-up & pre-slip, multiple mechanisms can
operate together; and (2) aseismic slip does not always provide more
predictability on the mainshock.