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Projected Antarctic extreme heat events in a warming world
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  • Ariel Lena Morrison,
  • Kyle Benjamin Heyblom,
  • Hansi Alice Singh,
  • Philip J. Rasch
Ariel Lena Morrison
University of Victoria

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kyle Benjamin Heyblom
University of Victoria
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Hansi Alice Singh
University of Victoria
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Philip J. Rasch
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)
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Abstract

As global temperatures increase, Antarctica is likely to experience increased frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events. Here we investigate how the characteristics of summer extreme temperature events - heatwaves and incidence of melt days - may change over Antarctica using daily historical and SSP5-8.5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) output from 1950-2099. CMIP6 models robustly project that Antarctica’s lowest elevation regions and the West Antarctic ice sheet will reach 0C for an average of 6-12 days during summer by 2099. Modelled summer heatwaves become more intense across the entire continent, but less frequent and shorter everywhere except the East Antarctic Plateau due to declining temperature variability as surface temperatures approach the melting point of ice. Our results imply that the increasing frequency of 0C days and greater heatwave intensity will contribute to increasing ice sheet surface melt and accelerating global sea level rise over the coming century.