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A framework for 210Pb model selection and its application to 37 cores from Eastern Canada to identify the dynamics and drivers of lake sedimentation rates
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  • Alexandre Baud,
  • Candice Aulard,
  • Hamid Ghanbari,
  • Maxime Fradette,
  • Dermot Antoniades,
  • Paul Del Giorgio,
  • Yannick Huot,
  • Pierre Francus,
  • John Smol,
  • Irene Gregory-Eaves
Alexandre Baud
Biology Department, McGill University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Candice Aulard
Département des sciences biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal
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Hamid Ghanbari
Département de géographie, Université Laval
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Maxime Fradette
Département de géomatique appliquée, Université de Sherbrooke
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Dermot Antoniades
Département de géographie, Université Laval
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Paul Del Giorgio
Département des sciences biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal
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Yannick Huot
Département de géographie, Université Laval
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Pierre Francus
Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS)
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John Smol
Biology Department, Queen’s University
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Irene Gregory-Eaves
Biology Department, McGill University
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Abstract

Lake sedimentation rate represents a synthetic metric of ecosystem functioning. Many localized studies have reported a significant association between land use/land cover changes and lake sediment mass accumulation rates, with a few global syntheses echoing these findings at larger scales. In the literature, studies evaluating lead-210 (210Pb) for establishing sediment chronologies will report at least one of three dating models, but the constant rate of supply (C.R.S.) model is the most widely used. However, it is often unclear how or why this model is selected, despite its influence on the interpretation of many subsequent analyses about ecosystem dynamics and functioning. It would thus be advantageous to design an objective and semi-automated way of choosing among dating models. We measured radioisotopic activities in 37 sediment cores across four ecozones of eastern Canada and developed an approach to assess model fit for the three commonly applied dating models. The derived chronologies were then used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation in sedimentation rates across four ecozones in Canada (covering a surface area of 2.2 x 10^6 km2). We observed a recent increase in lake sedimentation rates across most lakes, as has been observed globally, albeit with significant differences in the magnitude of sedimentation rates across ecozones. Across all lakes, we found that regional human population counts and mean annual air temperatures were significant temporal predictors of variation in mass accumulation rates. Overall, this analytical framework offers an objective approach for assessing fit and selecting among sediment age models, which contributes to a more robust quantification of sedimentation rates. With this first application, we provide a quantitative assessment of how lake sedimentation rates vary across a northern lake-rich region and have responded to environmental change.