Interannual variability of the 12-hour tide in the mesosphere and lower
thermosphere in 15 years of meteor-radar observations above Rothera
(68°S, 68°W)
Abstract
The tides of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) show great
variability on timescales of days to years, with significant variability
at interannual timescales. However, the nature and causes of this
variability remain poorly understood. Here, we present measurements made
over the interval 2005 to 2020 of the interannual variability of the
12-hour tide as measured at heights of 80 to 100 km by a meteor radar
over the British Antarctic Survey base at Rothera (68°S, 68°W). We use a
linear regression analysis to investigate correlations between the
12-hour tidal amplitudes and several climate indices, specifically the
solar cycle (as measured by F10.7 solar flux), El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) at 10 hPa and
30 hPa, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and investigate any linear
trends. Our observations reveal that the 12-hour tide has a large
amplitude and a clearly defined seasonal cycle with monthly mean values
as large as 35 ms-1. We observe substantial
interannual variability, exhibiting an interdecile range in monthly mean
tidal amplitudes at the height of 95 km in spring of 17.2
ms-1, 12.6 ms-1 in summer, 23.6
ms-1 in autumn and 9.0 ms-1 in
winter. We find that F10.7, QBO10, QBO30, SAM and time all have
significant correlations at the 95% level, whereas we detect very
minimal correlation with ENSO. These results suggest that variations in
F10.7, the QBO and SAM may contribute significantly to the interannual
variability of tidal amplitudes in the Antarctic MLT.