Decoupling of permafrost thaw and vegetation growth could mean both
ongoing nutrient limitation and an emergent source of N2O in high
latitudes
Abstract
Biogeochemical cycling in permafrost-affected ecosystems remains
associated with large uncertainties, which could impact the Earth’s
greenhouse gas budget and future climate mitigation policies. In
particular, increased nutrient availability following permafrost thaw
could perturb biogeochemical cycling in permafrost systems, an effect
largely unexplored in global assessments. In this study, we enhance the
terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY, which fully couples carbon (C),
nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles in vegetation and soil, with
processes relevant in high latitudes (e.g., soil freezing and snow
dynamics). We use this enhanced model to investigate impacts of
increased carbon and nutrient availability from permafrost thawing in
comparison to other climate-induced effects and CO2 fertilization over
1960 to 2019 over a multitude of tundra sites. Our simulation results
suggest that vegetation growth in high latitudes is acutely N-limited at
our case study sites. Despite this, enhanced availability of nutrients
in the deep active layer following permafrost thaw, simulated to be
around 0.1 m on average since the 1960s, accounts for only 11 % of the
total GPP increase averaged over all sites. Our analysis suggests that
the decoupling of the timing of peak vegetative growth (week 27-29 of
the year, corresponding to mid-to-late July) and maximum thaw depth
(week 34-37, corresponding to mid-to-late August), lead to an incomplete
plant use of newly available nutrients at the permafrost front. Due to
resulting increased availability of N at the permafrost table, as well
as alternating water saturation levels, increases in both nitrification
and denitrification enhance N2O emissions in the simulations. Our model
thus suggests a weak (5 mg N m-2 yr-1) but increasing source of N2O,
which reaches trends of up to +1 mg N m-2 yr-1 per decade, locally,
which is potentially of large importance for the global N2O budget.