Approach to Estimate Current and Future Destabilization Risk to Energy
Facilities on Permafrost
Abstract
Permafrost is permanently frozen ground that covers over 10% of the
Earth’s surface. Many northern regions have extensive infrastructure
built on this hard, frozen ground. When permafrost thaws, the ground
becomes a softer mix of soil and water, which can cause degradation and
damage to critical infrastructure. Permafrost thaw has substantial
economic, strategic, and environmental implications. While thawing
permafrost due to climate change will affect energy infrastructure in
many countries, this work focuses on Russia’s current and planned arctic
energy infrastructure. To quantify Russian energy infrastructure
locations on permafrost, geospatial data was collected and mapped.
Specifically, our analysis focuses on Russian gas and oil terminals and
power plants. First, we determined the types of permafrost extents
(e.g., continuous, discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated) on which each
energy facility lies. Next, to evaluate the infrastructure hazard
potential of permafrost thaw, we leveraged an existing analysis by
[Karjalainen et al., 2019] in which data on ground conditions were
weighted and aggregated to generate low, medium, or high hazard
classifications under various greenhouse gas trajectories. For the time
frame 2041-2060 and assuming greenhouse gas trajectories consistent with
RCP 4.5, most facilities were found to be located in moderate and high
hazard zones. A similar analysis was conducted for the years 2060-2081
under various climate conditions. Next, we generated supplemental
analysis to define similar hazard classifications under current climatic
conditions. The future climate scenario findings are compared with
current conditions to identify potential variations in hazard zones,
which could heighten infrastructure destabilization. Findings are
applied to a targeted case study of the Yamal Peninsula to assess
implications for Russia in the areas of energy capacity, foreign
investment and supply chains, and future infrastructure construction
projects. Citation: Karjalainen, O., Aalto, J., Luoto, M. et al.
Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future
infrastructure risk assessments. Sci Data 6, 190037 (2019).
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.37