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Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs
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  • Kevin Timothy Wright,
  • Kathleen Rose Johnson,
  • Tripti Bhattacharya,
  • Gabriela Serrato Marks,
  • David McGee,
  • Dillon Elsbury,
  • Yannick Peings,
  • Jean-Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz,
  • Gianna Lum,
  • Laura Beramendi-Orosco,
  • Gudrun Magnusdottir
Kevin Timothy Wright
University of California, Irvine

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kathleen Rose Johnson
University of California, Irvine
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Tripti Bhattacharya
Syracuse University
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Gabriela Serrato Marks
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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David McGee
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Dillon Elsbury
UC Irvine
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Yannick Peings
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine
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Jean-Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz
Independent Researcher
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Gianna Lum
University of California, Irvine
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Laura Beramendi-Orosco
Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
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Gudrun Magnusdottir
University of California, Irvine
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Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree-ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter-spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest precipitation in Northeast Mexico may increase in the future in response to the relative warming of Tropical North Atlantic SSTs.