A Large Ensemble Simulation of Geomagnetic Storms -- Can Simulations
Predict Ground Magnetometer Station Observations of Magnetic Field
Perturbations?
Abstract
We use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) Geospace
configuration to simulate a total of 122 storms from the period
2010-2019. With the focus on the storm main phase, each storm period was
run for 54 hours starting from 6 hours prior to the start of the Dst
depression. The simulation output of ground magnetic variations were
compared with ground magnetometer station data provided by SuperMAG to
statistically assess the Geospace model regional prediction performance.
Our results show that the regional predictions at mid-latitudes are
quite accurate, but the high-latitude regional disturbances are still
difficult to predict due to the complexity of the magnetosphere –
ionosphere coupling processes.