Improving the forecasting of winter crop yields in northern China with
machine learning-dynamical hybrid subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble
prediction
Abstract
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of winter wheat yields is
crucial for farmers and decision-makers to reduce yield losses and
ensure food security. Recently, numerous researchers have utilized
machine learning (ML) methods to predict crop yield using observational
climate variables and satellite data. Meanwhile, some studies also
illustrate the potential of state-of-the-art dynamical atmospheric
prediction in crop yield forecasting. However, the potential of coupling
both methods has not been fully exploited. Herein, we aim to establish a
skilled ML–dynamical hybrid model for crop yield forecasting (MHCF
v1.0), which hybridizes ML and a global dynamical atmospheric prediction
system, and apply it to northern China at the S2S time scale. MHCF v1.0
demonstrates that crop yield forecasting with S2S dynamical predictions
generally outperforms that with observational climate data. The coupling
of ML and S2S dynamical atmospheric prediction provides a useful tool
for yield forecasting, which could guide agricultural practices,
policy-making and agricultural insurance.