Climate Change Induced Increase on Power Demand and CO 2 Emissions in
the Middle East (Qatar)
Abstract
The hotter the climate is, the higher the demand for cooling is, leading
to more electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. To understand the
effect of future regional warming on the electricity demand and CO2
emissions in the Arabian Peninsula region, we selected a representative
country, Qatar, and developed a model that relates daily electricity
demand with temperature. By combining this model with temperature
projections from of 1 23 the CMIP6 database (bias adjusted and
statistically downscaled), as well as GDP and population projections
from four SSP scenarios, we calculated Qatar’s demand for electricity
until the end of the century. We found an average sensitivity of 1.7
GWh/°C for the electricity demand, equivalent to 0.4 MtCO2/°C for CO2
emissions. The electricity demand is projected to increase by 5 to 35%
due to warming alone at the end of this century. Under SSP1, the
warming-induced CO2 emissions could be offset by improvements of carbon
intensity. Under SSP5, assuming no improvement of carbon intensity,
future warming could add 20 to 35% of CO2 emissions per year by the end
of the century, with half of the electricity demand related to extremely
hot days becoming more frequent in the future. Our findings suggest that
it is important to consider additional CO2 emissions arising from future
warming in future temperature projections.