Abstract
Radon is a natural radioactive gas accounting for approximately one in
ten lung cancer deaths, with substantially higher death rates in
sub-Arctic communities where smoking is more prevalent. Radon transport
is significantly reduced in permafrost, but permafrost is now thawing
due to climate change. The effect of permafrost thawing on domestic
radon exposure is unknown. Here we present results from radon transport
modelling through soil, permafrost and model buildings either with
basements or built on piles. We find that permafrost acts as an
effective radon barrier, reducing radiation exposure to a tenth of the
background level, while producing a ten-fold increase in the radon
activity behind the barrier. When we model thawing of the permafrost
barrier, we find no increase in radon to the background level for
buildings on piles. However, for buildings with basements the radon
increases to over one hundred times its initial value and can remain
above the 200 Bq/m3 threshold for up to seven years
depending on the depth of the permafrost and the speed of thawing. When
thawing speed is taken into account, radiations remains higher than the
threshold for all scenarios where 40% melting occurs within 15 years.
This new information suggests that a significant sub-Arctic population
could be exposed to radon levels dangerous to health as a result of
climate change thawing of permafrost, with implications for health
provision, building codes and ventilation advice.