Evaluating the Dimension of the Design Space for Stratospheric Aerosol
Geoengineering
Abstract
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) can provide global cooling by
adding aerosols to the lower stratosphere, and thus is considered as a
possible supplement to emission reduction. Previous studies have shown
that injecting aerosols at different latitude(s) and season(s) can lead
to differences in regional surface climate, and there are at least three
independent degrees of freedom (DOF) that can be used to simultaneously
manage three different climate goals. To understand the fundamental
limits of how well SAI might compensate for anthropogenic climate
change, we need to know the possible surface climate responses to SAI by
evaluating the SAI design space. This research work quantifies the
number of meaningfully-independent DOFs of the SAI design space. This
number of meaningfully-independent DOF depends on both the climate
metrics that we care about and the amount of cooling. From the available
simulation data of different SAI strategies, we observe that between
surface air temperature and precipitation, surface air temperature
dominates the change of surface climate. The number of injection choices
that produce detectably different surface temperature is more than the
number of injection choices that produce detectably different
precipitation. At low levels of cooling, only a small set of injection
choices yield detectably different surface climate responses. As more
cooling is needed, more injection choices produce detectably different
surface climate. For a cooling level of 1-2C, we find that there are
likely between 6 and 12 DOFs. This reveals new opportunities for
exploring alternate SAI designs with different distributions of climate
impacts and evaluating the underlying trade-offs between different
climate goals.