Abstract
The lifetime of excess atmospheric CO2 (above
preindustrial) xCO2 governs the future consequences of
present xCO2 and those of future CO2
emissions. Recent assessments of the decrease of xCO2
following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions (zero emissions
commitment, ZEC) inferred from studies with carbon-cycle (CC) models
(e.g., Joos et al., ACP, 2013; MacDougall et al., BG, 2020) vary
substantially, with the fraction of xCO2 remaining in
the atmosphere 100 years after cessation, fCO2(100) =
xCO2(100)/xCO2(0), ranging from 0.55 to
0.85 (Figure 1a; Schwartz, JGR, 2018; Schwartz, in review). In this
study prior atmospheric and oceanic CO2 and future
xCO2 for ZEC were calculated with a 5-compartment global
model. Model compartments are the atmosphere, upper and deep ocean, and
labile and obdurate terrestrial biosphere (TB). Model parameters are
obtained mainly from observation (e.g., rate of uptake of heat by the
deep ocean) and theory (e.g., CO2-dependent solubility
of CO2 in seawater); uptake of CO2 by
the two TB compartments is apportioned by parameterization, with
parameters rather narrowly constrained by observations of
CO2 and radiocarbon. CO2 is found to
decay much more rapidly than in CC models; fCO2(100) =
0.41 ± 0.8 (1 σ), Figure 1a. These results indicate that cessation of
anthropogenic CO2 emissions would result in discernible
decrease in atmospheric CO2 on a time scale as short as
a human lifetime, much faster than in current CC models. Shown in Figure
1b is a quantity denoted τE(t), the equivalent 1/e
lifetime of xCO2, as a function of time subsequent to
cessation of emissions t, evaluated as τE(t) = -1/ln
fCO2(t). τE(t) is a generalization of
the relation between half-life of a decaying quantity and its 1/e
lifetime and is an integral measure of decay over time t. The present
model yields τE(t) of excess atmospheric
CO2 about 100 years, much shorter than obtained with
current CC models. Figure 1. a, Fractional excess CO2
fCO2(t) as function of time t following abrupt cessation
of anthropogenic CO2 emissions as calculated in a recent
model intercomparison (MacDougall et al., 2020) and with present model
(best estimate, thick red, and uncertainty range); dotted black lines
denote exponential decay with lifetime indicated at right. b, Equivalent
1/e lifetimes as function of t.