Spatio-Temporal Variations of Thermodynamic Indices during Pre-Monsoon
Season Thunderstorms over Eastern India
Abstract
Thunderstorms are very violent and short-lived weather phenomena
associated with thunder, rain, heavy wind, lightning and dense clouds.
These storms are persistent and intense during the pre-monsoon
(March-May) season over Eastern and North-eastern India, leading to
catastrophic destruction over the regions. These thunderstorms are
locally known as Kal-Baishakhi, Bordoichila or Nor’westers, which are
short-lived events able to make changes in the thermodynamic properties
of the environment. In this work, thermodynamic indices were calculated
and analysed to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of
thunderstorms over Eastern India (Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal).
The present study also investigated the influence of climate change on
thermodynamic indices thresholds over Eastern India by using radiosonde
data and ERA-5. The thermodynamic indices considered in the study are
Boyden index, bulk Richardson’s number, convective available potential
energy, convective inhibition, cross totals index, dew point temperature
at 850hPa, humidity Index, K index, lifted index, relative humidity at
700hPa, Showalter index, severe weather threat index, total totals
index, vertical totals index. After calculating these indices, with the
information of thunderstorm occurrence over the region, skill score
analysis has been accomplished based on the contingency table. The work
discussed the change in the thermodynamic indices pattern with every
5-year interval time for temporal variations and the climatological
variation of thermodynamic indices by using spatial plots to
differentiate the thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days for spatial
variations. In the temporal variation, some thermodynamic indices show a
noticeable shift of threshold values over time, while some indices do
not exhibit any apparent change in the pattern. The trend analysis of
these thermodynamic indices shows evident changes in trends over the
different regions of Eastern India for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm
days. Keywords: Thunderstorm, Climate Change, Thermodynamic indices,
Radiosonde data, Skill score