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Frequency Modeling for Bolide Hazard
  • Yi (Victor) Wang
Yi (Victor) Wang
Chapman University, Chapman University

Corresponding Author:ywang2@chapman.edu

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Near-Earth asteroids and meteoroids constitute various levels of impact danger to our planet. On the one end, billions of events associated with small-sized meteoroids have resulted in trivial effects. On the other end, the occurrences of large-sized asteroidal collisions that can cause mass extinctions and may wipe out the modern human civilization are extremely rare. In addition, large near-Earth asteroids are being monitored constantly for accurate and precise predictions of potential hazardous visits to our planet. However, small asteroids and large meteoroids can still often go under the radar and cause bolide explosions with potential of significant damage to communities on the ground. To facilitate management of bolide hazard, a number of scholarly works have been dedicated to estimation of frequencies of bolide events from a global perspective for planetary defense and mitigation. Nevertheless, few of the existing bolide frequency models were developed for local hazard management. In this presentation, the author introduces two recently developed frequency models for local management of bolide hazard. The first one, called the Dome model, computes the expected frequency of bolide explosions within a dome-shaped volume around a location. The second one, called the Coffee Cup model, is for a column-shaped volume above an area. Both models are based on empirical calibrations with historical data on energy, latitude, altitude, and frequency of bolide events. The modeling results indicate a linearly decreasing trend of frequency of bolide events from south to north latitudinally around the globe. The presented models can be applied to any location or area on Earth, including the entire surface of the planet.