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Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming
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  • Quang-Van Doan,
  • Fei Chen,
  • Hiroyuki Kusaka,
  • Anurag Dipankar,
  • Ansar Khan,
  • Rafiq Hamdi,
  • Matthias Roth,
  • Dev Niyogi
Quang-Van Doan
Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Fei Chen
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Hiroyuki Kusaka
University of Tsukuba
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Anurag Dipankar
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
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Ansar Khan
Lalbaba College
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Rafiq Hamdi
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
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Matthias Roth
National University of Singapore
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Dev Niyogi
University of Texas at Austin
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Understanding the response of extreme precipitation (EP) at a city scale to global warming is critical to protect a city from the risks of urban flooding under climate change. Yet, current knowledge on this issue is limited. Here, focusing on an urban agglomeration in the tropics, Singapore, we reveal that future global warming enhances both frequency and intensity of EP, based on simulations with a state-of-the-art convection-permitting regional climate model. EP intensification can reach maximum “super” Clausius-Clapeyron ( +7% per K warming) rate, consistently for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5. The intensification is lower for moderate and light precipitation, implying a situation of “wet gets wetter and dry remains dry”. EP enhancement is attributed to the increased atmospheric moisture and, more importantly, the enhanced lifting force, which directly strengthens the precipitation-making processes.