Abstract
Key Points: • We examine Indian summer monsoon rainfall interannual
variability and telecon-nections 1901-2020 • All-India Rainfall Index
(AIRI) closely tracks spatial and temporal extent of wet anomalies •
ENSO teleconnection projects onto AIRI but Indian Ocean Dipole onto a
known tripole pattern Abstract We revisit long-standing controversies
regarding relationships among the all-India rainfall index (AIRI),
sub-India summer rainfall variations, El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using 120-year sea surface
temperature and high-resolution rainfall datasets. AIRI closely tracks
with the spatial extent of wet anomalies and with the average across
gridpoints in rainy day count. The leading rainfall variability mode is
a monopole associated primarily with rainy day count and ENSO. The
second mode is a tripole with same-signed loadings in the high-rainfall
Western Ghats and Central Monsoon Zone regions and opposite-signed
loadings in Southeastern India between. The IOD projects onto this
tripole and, as such, is weakly correlated with AIRI. However, when the
linear influence of ENSO is removed, the IOD rainfall regressions become
quasi-homogeneously more positive, making the ENSO-residual IOD and AIRI
time-series significantly correlated. Plain Language Summary The Indian
summer monsoon generates copious rainfall each June through Septem-ber,
but more in some years than others, and more in some Indian sub-regions
than others. We use observation-based datasets spanning 1901-2020 to
reconcile past disagreements about these fluctuations. There has long
been concern that the rainfall rate averaged over the whole summer and
whole of India-the All-India Rainfall Index-doesn’t necessarily track
with the spatial extent of wet or dry anomalies within India which is
more relevant for many societal purposes, but we show that the two
measures vary closely with one another. There has been disagreement
about how the all-India average relates to rainfall in fixed sub-regions
of India, and we show using high-resolution rainfall data that the issue
stems in part from the use of coarse datasets in the past. Finally, we
reconcile disagreements about whether or not the Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) teleconnec-tion influences all-India rainfall by showing that,
when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal that influences both the
IOD and the monsoon rains is removed, the IOD significantly influences
the all-India average and with a distinct sub-India spatial pattern.