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On the all-India rainfall index and sub-India rainfall heterogeneity
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  • Spencer A Hill,
  • Adam Sobel,
  • Michela Biasutti,
  • Mark Cane
Spencer A Hill
Columbia University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Adam Sobel
Columbia University
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Michela Biasutti
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
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Mark Cane
Columbia University
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Abstract

Key Points: • We examine Indian summer monsoon rainfall interannual variability and telecon-nections 1901-2020 • All-India Rainfall Index (AIRI) closely tracks spatial and temporal extent of wet anomalies • ENSO teleconnection projects onto AIRI but Indian Ocean Dipole onto a known tripole pattern Abstract We revisit long-standing controversies regarding relationships among the all-India rainfall index (AIRI), sub-India summer rainfall variations, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using 120-year sea surface temperature and high-resolution rainfall datasets. AIRI closely tracks with the spatial extent of wet anomalies and with the average across gridpoints in rainy day count. The leading rainfall variability mode is a monopole associated primarily with rainy day count and ENSO. The second mode is a tripole with same-signed loadings in the high-rainfall Western Ghats and Central Monsoon Zone regions and opposite-signed loadings in Southeastern India between. The IOD projects onto this tripole and, as such, is weakly correlated with AIRI. However, when the linear influence of ENSO is removed, the IOD rainfall regressions become quasi-homogeneously more positive, making the ENSO-residual IOD and AIRI time-series significantly correlated. Plain Language Summary The Indian summer monsoon generates copious rainfall each June through Septem-ber, but more in some years than others, and more in some Indian sub-regions than others. We use observation-based datasets spanning 1901-2020 to reconcile past disagreements about these fluctuations. There has long been concern that the rainfall rate averaged over the whole summer and whole of India-the All-India Rainfall Index-doesn’t necessarily track with the spatial extent of wet or dry anomalies within India which is more relevant for many societal purposes, but we show that the two measures vary closely with one another. There has been disagreement about how the all-India average relates to rainfall in fixed sub-regions of India, and we show using high-resolution rainfall data that the issue stems in part from the use of coarse datasets in the past. Finally, we reconcile disagreements about whether or not the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) teleconnec-tion influences all-India rainfall by showing that, when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal that influences both the IOD and the monsoon rains is removed, the IOD significantly influences the all-India average and with a distinct sub-India spatial pattern.
28 Jan 2022Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 49 issue 2. 10.1029/2021GL096541