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The 2015–2017 Pamir Earthquake Sequence: Fore-, Main-, and Aftershocks, Seismotectonics and Fault Interaction
  • +7
  • Wasja Bloch,
  • Sabrina Metzger,
  • Bernd Dieter Schurr,
  • Xiaohui Yuan,
  • Lothar Ratschbacher,
  • Sanaa Reuter,
  • Qiang Xu,
  • Junmeng Zhao,
  • Shohrukh Murodkulov,
  • Ilhomjon Oimuhammadzoda
Wasja Bloch
Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam

Corresponding Author:wbloch@eoas.ubc.ca

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Sabrina Metzger
Helmholtz-Zentrum, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam
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Bernd Dieter Schurr
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ
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Xiaohui Yuan
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ
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Lothar Ratschbacher
Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
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Sanaa Reuter
Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
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Qiang Xu
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Junmeng Zhao
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Shohrukh Murodkulov
Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology of the Academy Science of the Republic of Tajikistan, Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology of the Academy Science of the Republic of Tajikistan, Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology of the Academy Science of the Republic of Tajikistan
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Ilhomjon Oimuhammadzoda
Tajikistan Academy of Sciences, Tajikistan Academy of Sciences, Tajikistan Academy of Sciences
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Abstract

A sequence of three strong (Mw7.2–6.4) and several moderate (Mw4.4–5.7) earthquakes struck the Pamir Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges of Tajikistan, China, and Kyrgyzstan in 2015–2017. With a local seismic network in operation in the Xinjiang province since August 2015, an aftershock network on the Pamir Plateau of Tajikistan since February 2016, and additional permanent regional seismic stations, we were able to record the succession of the fore-, main-, and aftershock sequences at local distances with good azimuthal coverage. We located 11,784 seismic events and determined the moment tensor for 35 earthquakes. The seismicity delineates the major tectonic structures of the Pamir, i.e., the thrusts that absorb shortening along the Plateau thrust front, and the strike-slip and normal faults that dissect the plateau into a westward extruding and a northward advancing block. Fault ruptures were activated subsequently at increasing distances from the initial Mw7.2 Sarez earthquake. All mainshock areas but the initial one exhibited foreshock seismicity which was not modulated by the occurrence of the earlier earthquakes. Modelling of the static Coulomb stress changes indicates that aftershock triggering occurred over distances of ≤90km on favourably oriented faults. The rupture of the second largest Mw6.6 Muji earthquake of the sequence happened despite its repeated stabilization through stress transfer in the order of -10 kPa. To explain the significant accumulation of Mw6+ earthquakes, we reason that the initial mainshock may have increased nearby fault permeability, and so facilitated fluid migration into the mature fault zones eventually triggering the later large earthquakes.
30 Nov 2022Published in Geophysical Journal International. 10.1093/gji/ggac473