The 2015–2017 Pamir Earthquake Sequence: Fore-, Main-, and Aftershocks,
Seismotectonics and Fault Interaction
Lothar Ratschbacher

Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
Author ProfileSanaa Reuter
Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany, Geologie, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
Author ProfileAbstract
A sequence of three strong (Mw7.2–6.4) and several moderate
(Mw4.4–5.7) earthquakes struck the Pamir Plateau and surrounding
mountain ranges of Tajikistan, China, and Kyrgyzstan in 2015–2017. With
a local seismic network in operation in the Xinjiang province since
August 2015, an aftershock network on the Pamir Plateau of Tajikistan
since February 2016, and additional permanent regional seismic stations,
we were able to record the succession of the fore-, main-, and
aftershock sequences at local distances with good azimuthal coverage. We
located 11,784 seismic events and determined the moment tensor for 35
earthquakes. The seismicity delineates the major tectonic structures of
the Pamir, i.e., the thrusts that absorb shortening along the Plateau
thrust front, and the strike-slip and normal faults that dissect the
plateau into a westward extruding and a northward advancing block. Fault
ruptures were activated subsequently at increasing distances from the
initial Mw7.2 Sarez earthquake. All mainshock areas but the initial one
exhibited foreshock seismicity which was not modulated by the occurrence
of the earlier earthquakes. Modelling of the static Coulomb stress
changes indicates that aftershock triggering occurred over distances of
≤90km on favourably oriented faults. The rupture of the second largest
Mw6.6 Muji earthquake of the sequence happened despite its repeated
stabilization through stress transfer in the order of -10 kPa. To
explain the significant accumulation of Mw6+ earthquakes, we reason that
the initial mainshock may have increased nearby fault permeability, and
so facilitated fluid migration into the mature fault zones eventually
triggering the later large earthquakes.