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Census-block-level Property Risk Assessment for Wildfire in Louisiana, U.S.A
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  • Rubayet Bin Mostafiz,
  • Carol Friedland,
  • Robert Rohli,
  • Nazla Bushra
Rubayet Bin Mostafiz
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Carol Friedland
Bert S. Turner Department of Construction Management, Bert S. Turner Department of Construction Management
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Robert Rohli
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences
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Nazla Bushra
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences
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Abstract

Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard. Research on wildfire, as with other natural hazards, is all too often conducted at a spatial scale that is too broad to identify local or even regional patterns. This study addresses these research gaps by examining the current and future wildfire risk, considering projections of population and property value, at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state with relatively dense population and abundant timber resources that would be vulnerable to loss from this hazard. Here wildfire risk is defined as the product of vulnerability to the hazard (which is itself defined as the product of burn probability, damage probability, and percent damaged) and exposure to the hazard, the latter of which is represented here by property value. Historical data (1992-2015) suggest that the highest risk is in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. Based on existing climate and environmental model output, this research assumes that wildfire will increase by 25 percent by 2050 in Louisiana from current values. When combined with projections of population and property value, it is determined that the geographic distribution of risk by 2050 will remain similar to that today-with highest risk in southwestern inland Louisiana and east-central Louisiana. However, the magnitude of risk will increase across the state, especially in those areas. These results will assist environmental planners in preparing for and mitigating a substantial hazard that often goes underestimated.