Integrating recurrent neural networks with data assimilation for
scalable data-driven state estimation
Abstract
Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to
perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this,
recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to
replace key components of the DA cycle in numerical weather prediction
(NWP), including the conventional numerical forecast model, the forecast
error covariance matrix, and the tangent linear and adjoint models. It
is shown how these RNNs can be initialized using DA methods to directly
update the hidden/reservoir state with observations of the target
system. The results indicate that these techniques can be applied to
estimate the state of a system for the repeated initialization of
short-term forecasts, even in the absence of a traditional numerical
forecast model. Further, it is demonstrated how these integrated RNN-DA
methods can scale to higher dimensions by applying domain localization
and parallelization, providing a path for practical applications in NWP.