On optimum solar wind - magnetosphere coupling functions for transpolar
voltage and planetary geomagnetic activity
Abstract
We use 65,133 hourly averages of transpolar voltage
(ΦPC) from observations made over 25 years by the
SuperDARN radars, along with simultaneous interpolated am
geomagnetic index values, and study their optimum interplanetary
coupling functions. We find lags of 18min. and 31min. for
ΦPC and am, respectively, and fit using a
general coupling function with four free fit exponents. To converge to a
fit, we need to average interplanetary parameters and then apply the
exponent which is a widely-used approximation: we show how and why this
is valid for all interplanetary parameters, except the factor
quantifying the effect of the clock angle of the interplanetary magnetic
field, sind(θ/2), which should be
computed at high time resolution and then averaged. We demonstrate the
effect of the exponent d on the distribution, and hence
weighting, of samples and show it causes d to be best determined
from the requirement that the coupling function is a linear predictor,
which yields d=2.50±0.07 for ΦPC and
d=3.00±0.22 for am. To check for overfitting, fits are
made to half the available data and tested against the other half.
Ensembles of 1000 fits are used to study the effect of the number of
samples on the distribution of errors in individual fits and on
systematic biases in the ensemble means. We find only a weak dependence
of solar wind density for ΦPC but a significant
one for am. The optimum coupling functions are shown to be
significantly different for ΦPC and am.