Detection and attribution science facing the future: the importance of
not confusing problem-solving and solution-use
Abstract
With a few exceptions extreme weather event attribution is recognised as
necessarily oriented towards tracing the history of present (or past)
extreme events. However, it must be noted that the usefulness of a true
causal claim linking climate change to its specific, local impacts may
not be exhausted by its being an answer to a pre-specified scientific
question about event attribution. This is because there is an important
difference between problem-solving and solution-use. And solution-use
can neither be controlled by the problem-solving science nor by its
taskmasters. The users can have other questions than the
problem-solvers. This commentary defends detection and attribution
science’s importance for individuals’ adaptation decisions.