Abstract

Peatlands store large amounts of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem and it seems that they would shift from being a carbon sink to a carbon source due to recent warming. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of peatland carbon dynamics in distinct future climate conditions. The study examined whether less pronounced warming could further enhance the peatland carbon sink capacity and buffer the effects of climate change. It also determined which trajectory peatland carbon balance would follow, what the main drivers were, and which one would dominate in the future. We found that peatlands could largely retain their carbon sink capacity with reduced rates under the climate change scenario RCP 2.6 to RCP 6.0. They are projected to shift from a carbon sink to a carbon-neutral or a small carbon source in the strong warming scenario RCP 8.5 by the end of this century.