The influence of non-static sea ice on Antarctic and Southern Ocean
numerical weather prediction
Abstract
Although operational weather forecasting centers are increasingly using
coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models to replace atmosphere-only models
for short-term (10 days) weather forecasting, the influence of sea ice
on such forecasting has yet to be fully quantified, especially in the
Southern Ocean. To address this gap, a polar-specific version of the
Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) is implemented within
a circumpolar Antarctic domain to investigate the impact of
daily-updates of sea ice concentrations on short-term weather
forecasting. Apart from some steep plateau regions adjacent to the
Antarctic continental margin, Polar WRF shows good forecast skill in
Antarctic surface variables. A statistically significant improvement in
near-surface temperature and humidity is shown from +96 hours to +192
hours when assimilating daily sea ice concentration into the model.
Improvements in model performance are enhanced during July through
September, which is a period of late sea ice advance. Regionally, model
improvements are shown to encompass almost all sea ice regions, although
marked in the Ross and Weddell seas sectors. The surface heat budget
balance also shows remarkable improvement in outgoing radiative heat
fluxes and both sensible and latent heat fluxes after 48 hours. Our
results demonstrate the non-negligible effect of including daily-updates
of sea ice concentrations in numerical weather forecasting, and
endorsing the necessity of a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model in
operational high-latitude Southern Hemisphere weather forecasting.