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Using simple, explainable neural networks to predict the Madden-Julian oscillation
  • Zane K. Martin,
  • Elizabeth A. Barnes,
  • Eric Daniel Maloney
Zane K. Martin
Colorado State University, Colorado State University, Colorado State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Elizabeth A. Barnes
Colorado State University, Colorado State University, Colorado State University
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Eric Daniel Maloney
Colorado State University, Colorado State University, Colorado State University
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Abstract

Few studies have utilized machine learning techniques to predict or understand the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a key source of subseasonal variability and predictability. Here we present a simple framework for real-time MJO prediction using shallow artificial neural networks (ANNs). We construct two ANN architectures, one deterministic and one probabilistic, that predict a real-time MJO index using maps of tropical variables. These ANNs make skillful MJO predictions out to ~17 days in October-March and ~10 days in April-September, outperforming conventional linear models and efficiently capturing aspects of MJO predictability found in more complex, dynamical models. The flexibility and explainability of simple ANN frameworks is highlighted through varying model input and applying ANN explainability techniques that reveal sources and regions important for ANN prediction skill. The accessibility, performance, and efficiency of this simple machine learning framework is more broadly applicable to predict and understand other Earth system phenomena.