Using simple, explainable neural networks to predict the Madden-Julian
oscillation
Abstract
Few studies have utilized machine learning techniques to predict or
understand the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a key source of
subseasonal variability and predictability. Here we present a simple
framework for real-time MJO prediction using shallow artificial neural
networks (ANNs). We construct two ANN architectures that predict a
real-time MJO index using latitude-longitude maps of tropical variables.
These ANNs make skillful MJO predictions out to ~17 days
in October-March and ~10 days in April-September, and
efficiently capture aspects of MJO predictability found in more complex,
computationally-expensive models. Varying model input and applying ANN
explainability techniques further reveal sources and regions important
for ANN prediction skill. This simple machine learning framework can be
more broadly adapted and applied to predict and understand other climate
phenomena.