The influence of spacecraft latitudinal offset on the accuracy of
corotation forecasts
Abstract
Knowledge of the ambient solar wind is important for accurate
space-weather forecasting. A simple-but-effective method of forecasting
near-Earth solar-wind conditions is “corotation”, wherein solar-wind
structure is assumed to be fixed in the reference frame rotating with
the Sun. Under this approximation, observations at a source spacecraft
can be rotated to a target location, such as Earth. Forecast accuracy
depends upon the rate of solar-wind evolution, longitudinal and
latitudinal separation between the source and target, and latitudinal
structure in the solar wind itself. The time-evolution rate and
latitudinal structure of the solar wind are both strongly influenced by
the solar cycle, though in opposing ways. A latitudinal offset is
typically present, introducing an error to corotation forecasts. In this
study, we use observations from the STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft to
quantify the latitudinal error. Aliasing between the solar cycle and
STEREO orbits means that individual contributions to the forecast error
are difficult to isolate. However, by considering an 18-month interval
near the end of solar minimum, we find that the latitudinal-offset
contribution to corotation-forecast error cannot be directly detected
for offsets <6º, but is increasingly important as offsets
increase. This result can be used to improve solar-wind data
assimilation, allowing representivity errors in solar-wind observations
to be correctly specified. Furthermore, as the maximum latitudinal
offset between L5 and Earth is ≈5º, corotation forecasts from a future
L5 spacecraft should not be greatly affected by latitudinal offset.