CAPE-based derivation of approximate tropical cyclone potential
intensity formula
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity (PI) theory has been
extensively used for future climate change assessments of TC activity.
PI theory has a well known approximate form, consistent with a Carnot
cycle interpretation of TC energetics, which relates PI to mean
environmental conditions: the difference between surface and TC outflow
temperatures and the air-sea enthalpy disequilibrium. The changes in
these conditions (the increase in air-sea disequilibrium, in particular)
provide a physical reason for the robust increase in tropical-mean PI
simulated in future climate projections. Quantitative assessments of
future changes, in contrast, make use of a numerical algorithm based on
the relationship between PI and convective available potential energy
(CAPE). Here, a recently developed analytic theory for CAPE is used to
present an alternative derivation of an approximate form of PI. The
derivation offers insight into the limited sensitivity of PI to the
atmospheric stratification in the free troposphere. The resulting
CAPE-based approximate formula nearly recovers the previous approximate
PI formula, and the new formula helps account for the
weaker-than-expected sensitivity of PI to surface relative humidity
changes. The new analytic CAPE-based PI builds confidence in previous
numerical CAPE-based PI calculations that use climate model projections
of the future tropical environment.