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The effects of climate change on Chinese Medicinal Yam over North China under the high-resolution PRECIS projection
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  • Dongli Fan,
  • Zhiyu Jiang,
  • Zhan Tian,
  • Guangtao Dong,
  • Laixiang Sun
Dongli Fan
Shanghai Institute of Technology
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Zhiyu Jiang
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University
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Zhan Tian
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Guangtao Dong
Shanghai Climate Center
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Laixiang Sun
University of Maryland, College Park
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The arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro-climatic conditions. This study investigates the projections of agroclimatology change during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario in the semi-arid North China. It is simulated by the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model with climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY), which is genuinely produced over semi-arid regions, is taken as an example to study the change of its yield and producing area under future climate change. The results show that the high-resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations than the general circulation model (GCM) in precipitation and temperature. In North China, the CMY genuine production area, the precipitation will increase by about 10% and the temperature will increase by about 2oC under the RCP8.5 scenario. After the evaluation and projection of climate models, the potential yield of CMY and the suitable planting regions are simulated by using the AEZ model. The CMY production areas will expand northward in the future, due to the climate warming in the north. The traditional yam production area still maintains the suitability of CMY production. The production of CMY will augment because of the increased production area.