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Transient and quasi-equilibrium climate states at 1.5{degree sign}C and 2{degree sign}C global warming
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  • Andrew David King,
  • Alexander R Borowiak,
  • Josephine R. Brown,
  • David John Frame,
  • Luke James Harrington,
  • Seung-Ki Min,
  • Angeline Greene Pendergrass,
  • Maria A.A. Rugenstein,
  • Kale Sniderman,
  • Dáithí A Stone
Andrew David King
University of Melbourne

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Alexander R Borowiak
University of Melbourne
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Josephine R. Brown
University of Melbourne
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David John Frame
Victoria University of Wellington
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Luke James Harrington
New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute
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Seung-Ki Min
Pohang University of Science and Technology
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Angeline Greene Pendergrass
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Maria A.A. Rugenstein
Colorado State University
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Kale Sniderman
University of Melbourne
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Dáithí A Stone
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
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Abstract

Recent climate change is characterised by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate where global temperatures remain well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Inferences about conditions at or below 2°C are usually made based on transient climate projections. To better understand climate change impacts on natural and human systems under the Paris Agreement, we must understand how a stable climate may differ from transient conditions at the same warming level. Here we examine differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates based on greenhouse gas-only model simulations at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. We find substantial local differences between seasonal-average temperatures, with mid-latitude land regions in boreal summer considerably warmer in a transient climate than a quasi-equilibrium state at both 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. Our research demonstrates that the rate of global warming must be considered in regional projections.