Abstract
In 2015, the Olympic Mountains contain 255 glaciers and perennial
snowfields totaling 25.34 ± 0.27 km2, half of the area
in 1900, and about 0.75 ± 0.19 km3 of ice. Since 1980,
glaciers shrank at a rate of -0.59 km2
yr-1 during which 35 glaciers and 16 perennial
snowfields disappeared. Area changes of Blue Glacier, the largest
glacier in the study region, was a good proxy for glacier change of the
entire region. A simple mass balance model of the glacier, based on
monthly air temperature and precipitation, correlates with glacier area
change. The mass balance is highly sensitive to changes in air
temperature rather than precipitation, typical of maritime glaciers. In
addition to increasing summer melt, warmer winter temperatures changed
the phase of precipitation from snow to rain, reducing snow
accumulation. Changes in glacier mass balance are highly correlated with
the Pacific North American index, a proxy for atmospheric circulation
patterns and controls air temperatures along the Pacific Coast of North
America. Regime shifts of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific,
reflected in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), trigger shifts in
the trend of glacier mass balance. Negative (‘cool’) phases of the PDO
are associated with glacier stability or slight mass gain whereas
positive (‘warm’) phases are associated with mass loss and glacier
retreat. Over the past century the overall retreat is due to warming air
temperatures, almost +1oC in winter and
+0.3oC in summer. The glaciers in the Olympic
Mountains are expected to largely disappear by 2070.