Reanalysis of the ionospheric total electron content anomalies around
the 2011 Tohoku-Oki and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes: Lack of a clear
precursor of large earthquakes
Abstract
We investigate the veracity of the reports by Iwata & Umeno (2016,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023036) and Iwata & Umeno (2017,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023921), both of which claimed that the
observed perturbations in GNSS-based ionospheric total electron content
(TEC) could serve as a “precursor” of large earthquakes based on
correlation analysis. Iwata&Umeno (2016) defined the spatial
correlation of the residuals between the observed and predicted TEC time
series and reported that the values are significantly larger before
large earthquakes than those observed during non-earthquake periods.
Iwata&Umeno (2017) claimed that the preseismic ionospheric disturbances
can be distinguished from other non-earthquake phenomena based on the
small percentage of area where the correlation value exceeds the
criterion. They also claimed that the low propagation velocity of the
correlation peaks is also a pre-seismic characteristic. Here we test
their claims using a larger dataset. As a result, these three
characteristics they claimed to have captured as evidence of earthquake
precursors are not significant being frequently observed during normal
(non-earthquake) days, and therefore we can find no basis for claiming
that they are precursors to the earthquakes.