Resolving simulated sequences of earthquakes and fault interactions:
implications for physics-based seismic hazard assessment
Abstract
Physics-based numerical modeling of earthquake source processes strives
to predict quantities of interest for seismic hazard, such as the
probability of an earthquake rupture jumping between fault segments. How
to assess the predictive power of numerical models remains a topic of
ongoing debate. Here, we investigate how sensitive are the outcomes of
numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip to
choices in numerical discretization and treatment of inertial effects,
using a simplified 2-D crustal fault model with two co-planar segments
separated by a creeping barrier. Our simulations demonstrate that
simplifying inertial effects and using oversized cells significantly
affects the resulting earthquake sequences, including the rate of
two-segment ruptures. We find that a number of fault models with
different properties and modeling assumptions can produce comparable
frequency-magnitude statistics and static stress drops but have rates of
two-segment ruptures ranging from 0 (single-segment ruptures only) to 1
(two-segment ruptures only). For sufficiently long faults, we find that
long-term sequences of events can substantially differ even among
simulations that are well-resolved by standard considerations. In such
simulations, some outcomes, such as static stress drops, are stable
among adequately-resolved simulations, whereas others, such as the rate
of two-segment ruptures, can be highly sensitive to numerical procedures
and physical assumptions, and hence cannot be reliably inferred. Our
results emphasize the need to examine the potential dependence of
simulation outcomes on the modeling procedures and resolution,
particularly when assessing their predictive value for seismic hazard
assessment.