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Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf
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  • Zhuomin Chen,
  • Young-Oh Kwon,
  • Ke Chen,
  • Paula Fratantoni,
  • Glen G. Gawarkiewicz,
  • Terrence M. M Joyce,
  • Timothy J. Miller,
  • Janet A. Nye,
  • VINCENT SELLITTO SABA,
  • Brian Stock
Zhuomin Chen
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Young-Oh Kwon
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Ke Chen
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Paula Fratantoni
NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center
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Glen G. Gawarkiewicz
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Terrence M. M Joyce
WHOI
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Timothy J. Miller
NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center
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Janet A. Nye
University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
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VINCENT SELLITTO SABA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service
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Brian Stock
NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center
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Abstract

The Northeast U.S. shelf (NES) is an oceanographically dynamic marine ecosystem and supports some of the most valuable demersal fisheries in the world. A reliable prediction of NES environmental variables, particularly ocean bottom temperature, could lead to a significant improvement in demersal fisheries management. However, the current generation of climate model-based seasonal-to-interannual predictions exhibit limited prediction skill in this continental shelf environment. Here we have developed a hierarchy of statistical seasonal predictions for NES bottom temperatures using an eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis dataset. A simple, damped local persistence prediction model produces significant skill for lead times up to ~6 months in the Mid-Atlantic Bight and up to ~11 months in the Gulf of Maine, although the prediction skill varies notably by season. Considering temperature from a nearby or upstream (i.e. more polewawrd) region as an additional predictor generally improves prediction skill, presumably as a result of advective processes. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indices, such as Gulf Stream path indices (GSIs) and the North Atlantic Oscillation index, are also tested as predictors for NES bottom temperatures. Only the GSI constructed from temperature observed at 200 m depth significantly improves the prediction skill relative to local persistence. However, the prediction skill from this GSI is not larger than that gained using models incorporating nearby or upstream shelf/slope temperatures. Based on these results, a simplified statistical model has been developed, which can be tailored to fisheries management for the NES.
May 2021Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans volume 126 issue 5. 10.1029/2021JC017187