loading page

Establishing a Risk Assessment Framework for Marine Assets and Assessing Typhoon Lekima Storm Surge for the Laizhou Bay Coastal Area
  • +2
  • Jian Li,
  • Yijun Hou,
  • Rui Li,
  • Ze Liu,
  • Qingrong Liu
Jian Li
North China Sea Marine Forecasting center of SOA

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Yijun Hou
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Author Profile
Rui Li
North China Sea Marine Forecasting center of SOA
Author Profile
Ze Liu
Chinese Academy of Science
Author Profile
Qingrong Liu
North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources
Author Profile


Effective risk assessment can reduce the economic losses and physical damage caused by marine dynamic processes, such as storm surges. Most risk assessments of marine disasters are based on regional parameters and discrete hazard grades. Targeted, multilevel, and multiangle risk assessments are urgently needed. This study focused on specific types of affected infrastructure. We established a sensitivity matrix by considering the effects of different disaster causal factors on different types of affected infrastructure. Through this matrix, hazards, vulnerability, and emergency response and recovery capability were effectively combined in a risk assessment framework. We completed the risk calculation for multiple concurrent effects of disasters in areas with superimposed key infrastructure using complementary risk superposition. The hazard grade, vulnerability grade, and coefficient of emergency response and recovery capability were established based on the means of return period, characteristics of disaster distribution, types of affected infrastructure and disaster relief distance, and were continuous by solving functions, normal cumulative distributions, and analytic functions. On the basis of reasonable MIKE21 numerical simulation and abstract spatial distribution of vulnerable assets, we tested the rationality of the assessment system in the Lekima typhoon storm surge process. The results showed that the assessment system accurately reflected the risk of damage to the important infrastructure. Therefore, this risk assessment framework was suitable for the assessment of marine dynamic disaster process in the lower part of Laizhou Bay. It also provided a reference for disaster prevention and reduction, guided the way for decision-making, and effectively reduced disaster losses.