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Spatiotemporal analysis of associations between flood hydrometeorology and gastroenteric infection: The Winter 2015-2016 flood event in the Republic of Ireland
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  • Martin Boudou,
  • Coilin Oh'Aiseadha,
  • Patricia Garvey,
  • Jean O'Dwyer,
  • Paul Dylan Hynds
Martin Boudou
Technological University Dublin
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Coilin Oh'Aiseadha
Health Service Executive
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Patricia Garvey
Health Service Executive
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Jean O'Dwyer
University College Cork
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Paul Dylan Hynds
Technological University Dublin

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

While the infrastructural damage and subsequent costs associated with flood events have, and will continue to receive widespread attention, less attention is given to the adverse human health effects of these events. This is particularly significant in the ROI, which is characterised by the highest crude incidence rates of verotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) enteritis and cryptosporidiosis in Europe. Accordingly, weekly infection incidence from July 2015 to June 2016 were employed in concurrence with weekly time-series of antecedent hydrometeorological parameters (rainfall, surface water discharge and groundwater level), and high-resolution flood risk mapping. An ensemble of statistical and time-series approaches were employed to quantify the influence and timing of flood hydrometeorology on infections. Seasonal decomposition identified a high residual infection peak (excluding seasonal pattern) during April 2016, with space-timing scanning used to identify the location, size and temporal extent of excess infection clusters. Excess cases of VTEC enteritis were geographically associated with the Shannon basin, while cryptosporidiosis excess was nationwide. Generalised linear modelling indicates that areas with a surface water body exhibited significantly higher incidence rates for both infections (OR 1.225 - 1.363 p <0.001). Non-parametric ranking identified a clear association between hydrometeorology and infection incidence, with lagged associations from 16-20 weeks proving particularly strong, thus indicating a link between infection peaks (April 2016) and the flood event which began approximately 18 weeks earlier. Findings demonstrate all three hydrometeorological variables could be used to predict the increase in cryptosporidiosis during April 2016, while only surface water discharge was associated with VTEC enteritis.