Global Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations: Performance Quantification of
Magnetopause Distances and Convection Potential Prediction
Abstract
The performance of three global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in
estimating the Earth’s magnetopause location and ionospheric cross polar
cap potential (CPCP) have been presented. Using the Community
Coordinated Modeling Center’s Run-on-Request system and extensive
database on results of various magnetospheric scenarios simulated for a
variety of solar weather patterns, the aforementioned model predictions
have been compared with magnetopause standoff distance estimations
obtained from six empirical models, and with cross polar cap potential
estimations obtained from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric
Electrodynamics (AMIE) Model and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network
(SuperDARN) observations. We have considered a range of events spanning
different space weather activity to analyze the performance of these
models. Using a fit performance metric analysis for each event, the
models’ reproducibility of magnetopause standoff distances and CPCP
against empirically-predicted observations were quantified, and salient
features that govern the performance characteristics of the modeled
magnetospheric and ionospheric quantities were identified. Results
indicate mixed outcomes for different models during different events,
with almost all models underperforming during the extreme-most events.
The quantification also indicates a tendency to underpredict
magnetopause distances in the absence of an inner magnetospheric model,
and an inclination toward over predicting CPCP values under general
conditions.