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A Testable Worldwide Earthquake Faulting Mechanism Forecast Model
  • Matteo Taroni,
  • Jacopo Selva
Matteo Taroni

Corresponding Author:matteo.taroni@ingv.it

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Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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In this paper, we present a simple model to forecast global focal mechanisms. This model is based on a simple discrete counting distribution of the global centroid moment tensor catalog and it also includes, using a Bayesian scheme, the a priori information from the Anderson theory of faulting. Our model is tested against independent data of global large earthquakes with Ms≥7. We obtained statistically significant results, demonstrating that this simple model can satisfactorily forecast focal mechanisms at the global scale. These forecasts may inform short- to long-term hazard quantifications that require a finite source characterization, as well as real-time source inversion algorithms.