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Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Interglaciation and implications for future change
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  • Nicholas R. Golledge,
  • Peter U Clark,
  • Feng He,
  • Andrea Dutton,
  • Chris Turney,
  • Chris Fogwill,
  • Tim Naish,
  • Richard H. Levy,
  • Robert Murray McKay,
  • Daniel P Lowry,
  • Nancy A.N. Bertler,
  • Gavin B Dunbar,
  • Anders E. Carlson
Nicholas R. Golledge
Victoria University of Wellington, Victoria University of Wellington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Peter U Clark
Oregon State University, Oregon State University
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Feng He
University of Wisconsin-Madison, University of Wisconsin-Madison
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Andrea Dutton
University of Florida, University of Florida
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Chris Turney
University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales
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Chris Fogwill
Keele University, Keele University
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Tim Naish
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria Univ. of Wellington, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria Univ. of Wellington
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Richard H. Levy
Geological and Nuclear Sciences - Te Pu Ao, Geological and Nuclear Sciences - Te Pu Ao
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Robert Murray McKay
Victoria University of Wellington, Victoria University of Wellington
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Daniel P Lowry
GNS Science, GNS Science
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Nancy A.N. Bertler
Victoria University of Wellington, Victoria University of Wellington
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Gavin B Dunbar
Victoria University of Wellington, Victoria University of Wellington
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Anders E. Carlson
Oregon Glaciers Institute, Oregon Glaciers Institute
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Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C ‘safe limit’ of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here we present new, transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically-constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.
08 Sep 2021Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 48 issue 17. 10.1029/2021GL094513