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How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections?
  • Tamzin Emily Palmer,
  • Ben Booth,
  • Carol Frances McSweeney
Tamzin Emily Palmer
Met Office

Corresponding Author:tamzin.palmer@metoffice.gov.uk

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Ben Booth
Met Office
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Carol Frances McSweeney
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Reliable climate projections are essential for adaptation and mitigation planning. We compare CMIP6 projections for temperature and precipitation to CMIP5 for northern Europe, central Europe and the Mediterranean. The CMIP6 ensemble shows an increased projected summer warming compared to CMIP5. Central Europe was also found to have a stronger drying trend in the summer months in CMIP6. We show that warmer projected summer temperatures are largely driven by CMIP6 sampling higher global climate sensitivities, with broadly similar regional responses to these. For those interested in central estimates of European changes, CMIP6 does not change the existing CMIP5 picture but better samples higher end change for more risk adverse users. However, regional sensitivity is important in central Europe where it accounts for roughly 40$\%$ of the differences between ensembles in projected regional temperature. This analysis raises an important question about whether CMIP6 can be considered to supersede CMIP5, or supplement it
01 Sep 2021Published in Environmental Research Letters volume 16 issue 9 on pages 094042. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1ed9