Abstract
Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in
projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for
evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic ecosystem. Here, we consider the
role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in
projections of Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) by using six single model
initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in
Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of
September Arctic SIE, internal variability accounts for as much as 60%
of the total uncertainty in the next few decades, while emissions
scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model
structure accounts for approximately 70% of the total uncertainty by
mid-century and declines to 20% at the end of the 21st century. For
projections of wintertime Arctic SIE, internal variability contributes
as much as 60% of the total uncertainty in the first few decades and
impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to summer
SIE. Model structure contributes the rest of the uncertainty with
emissions scenario contributing little to the total uncertainty. At
regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary
widely and strongly depends on the month and region. For wintertime SIE
in the GIN and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes
approximately 70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and
remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find
that the relative contribution of internal variability to total
uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines.
These results demonstrate the need to improve the representation of
internal variability of Arctic SIE in models, which is a significant
source of uncertainty in future projections.