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Relating the Start to the Terminator of Solar Cycle 25 and a Significant X-Flare Event
  • Patrick Geryl,
  • Jan Alvestad
Patrick Geryl
Independent

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jan Alvestad
Independent
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Abstract

After analyzing the lowest adjusted 10.7cm solar flux values, we find that the adjusted flux for October 2019 is low enough to locate the start of Solar Cycle 25 between August 2019 and January 2020. Further findings point to November-December 2019 as the starting date for Solar Cycle 25, while the 2K high (based on 2048x2048 pixels SDO images) resolution sunspot number points to December 2019. Once we understand the signal for the start of Solar Cycle 25, we can deduce the start of the time frame for the ‘Terminator’. This is the moment when Cycle 25 will be ‘fired up’. Two recent articles made headlines using complex mathematics to predict the start of the ‘Terminator’. However, at the time they didn’t know the start of Solar Cycle 25 and therefore failed in their effort. The reason for this is that the low point between cycles is currently considered unimportant. We strongly disagree and point out that we can calculate the ‘Terminator’ more accurately if the low is considered a crucial starting point. A possible significant solar flare event in excess of X10.0 could happen in 2021.