Constraining and Characterizing the size of Atmospheric Rivers: A
perspective independent from the detection algorithm.
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (AR) are large and narrow filaments of horizontal
water vapor poleward transport. The size of ARs determines how much
water vapor is carried from the tropics into higher latitudes, leading
to extreme precipitation. Current AR detection and tracking algorithms
have resulted in large uncertainty in the estimation of their sizes,
with areas varying over several orders of magnitude among different
detection methods. We develop and implement five independent methods to
reduce the uncertainty and characterize the size of ARs that make
landfall over the west coast of North America in the 1980-2017 period.
ARs that originate in the northwest Pacific (WP)
(100oE-180oE) have larger sizes and
are more zonally oriented than those from the northeast Pacific (EP)
(180oE-240oE). ARs become smaller
through their lifecycle, mainly due to reductions in their width. They
also become more meridionally oriented towards the end of their
lifecycle. Overall, the size estimation methods proposed in this work
provide a range of AR areas (between
7x1011m2 and 1013
m2) that is several orders of magnitude narrower than
current methods estimation. This methodology can provide statistical
constraints in size and geometry for the AR detection and tracking
algorithms; and objective insight into AR size studies under climate
change scenarios in the future.