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Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment
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  • Travis Allen O'Brien,
  • Michael F Wehner,
  • Ashley E. Payne,
  • Christine A Shields,
  • Jonathan J. Rutz,
  • L. Ruby Leung,
  • F. Martin Ralph,
  • Allison B. Marquardt Collow,
  • Bin Guan,
  • Juan Manuel Lora,
  • Elizabeth McClenny,
  • Kyle M. Nardi,
  • Alexandre M. Ramos,
  • Ricardo Tomé,
  • Chandan Sarangi,
  • Eric Jay Shearer,
  • Paul Ullrich,
  • Colin M. Zarzycki,
  • Burlen Loring,
  • Huanping Huang,
  • Héctor Alejandro Inda Díaz,
  • Alan M. Rhoades,
  • Yang Zhou,
  • Irina Gorodetskaya,
  • Bin Guan,
  • Kyle M. Nardi,
  • Chandan Sarangi,
  • Huanping Huang
Travis Allen O'Brien
Indiana University Bloomington, Indiana University Bloomington, Indiana University Bloomington, Indiana University Bloomington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Michael F Wehner
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE)
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Ashley E. Payne
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
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Christine A Shields
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Jonathan J. Rutz
National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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L. Ruby Leung
PNNL, PNNL, PNNL, PNNL
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F. Martin Ralph
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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Allison B. Marquardt Collow
Universities Space Research Association and NASA/GSFC, Universities Space Research Association and NASA/GSFC, Universities Space Research Association and NASA/GSFC, Universities Space Research Association and NASA/GSFC
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Bin Guan
University of California Los Angeles, University of California Los Angeles
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Juan Manuel Lora
Yale University, Yale University, Yale University, Yale University
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Elizabeth McClenny
University of California, Davis, University of California, Davis, University of California, Davis, University of California, Davis
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Kyle M. Nardi
Colorado State University, Colorado State University
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Alexandre M. Ramos
Instituto Dom Luiz, Instituto Dom Luiz, Instituto Dom Luiz, Instituto Dom Luiz
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Ricardo Tomé
Instituto Dom Luiz, Instituto Dom Luiz, Instituto Dom Luiz, Instituto Dom Luiz
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Chandan Sarangi
IIT Kanpur, IIT Kanpur
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Eric Jay Shearer
University of California, Irvine, University of California, Irvine, University of California, Irvine, University of California, Irvine
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Paul Ullrich
University of California Davis, University of California Davis, University of California Davis, University of California Davis
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Colin M. Zarzycki
Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania State University
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Burlen Loring
Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
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Huanping Huang
Dartmouth College, Dartmouth College
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Héctor Alejandro Inda Díaz
University of California Davis, University of California Davis, University of California Davis, University of California Davis
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Alan M. Rhoades
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Yang Zhou
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Irina Gorodetskaya
Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Dept. of Physics, University of Aveiro, Portugal, Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Dept. of Physics, University of Aveiro, Portugal, Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Dept. of Physics, University of Aveiro, Portugal
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Bin Guan
University of California Los Angeles, University of California Los Angeles
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Kyle M. Nardi
Penn State University, Penn State University
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Chandan Sarangi
IIT Madras, IIT Madras
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Huanping Huang
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
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Abstract

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

Peer review status:Published

27 Mar 2022Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres volume 127 issue 6. 10.1029/2021JD036013