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Analyzing and Monitoring the Impact of Streamflow Drought on Hydroelectricity Production: A Global-Scale Study
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  • Wenhua Wan,
  • Jianshi Zhao,
  • Eklavyya Popat,
  • Claudia Herbert,
  • Petra Doell
Wenhua Wan
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Tsinghua University
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Jianshi Zhao
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University
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Eklavyya Popat
Goethe University Frankfurt
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Claudia Herbert
Goethe University Frankfurt
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Petra Doell
Goethe University Frankfurt

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Electricity production by hydropower is negatively affected by drought. To understand, monitor and manage risks of less than normal streamflow for hydroelectricity production (HP) at the global scale, we developed an HP model that simulates time series of monthly HP worldwide and thus enables analyzing and monitoring the impact of drought on HP. The HP model is based on a new global hydropower database (GHD), containing 8748 geo-localized plant records, and on monthly streamflow values computed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP. The GHD includes 43 attributes and covers 91.8% of the globally installed capacity. The HP model can capture the interannual variability of country-scale HP that was caused by both (de)commissioning of hydropower plants and streamflow variability. It can also simulate the streamflow drought and its impact on HP reasonably well. A drought risk analysis for period 1975−2016 revealed the reduction of HP that is exceeded in 1 out of 10 years. 71 out of 134 countries with hydropower suffer from a reduction of more than 20% of average HP, and 20 countries from a reduction of more than 40%. We suggest four indices for monitoring the drought impact on HP in grid cells and on total electricity production in countries. These indices quantify the impact in terms of either relative reduction or anomaly. Applying the developed HP model, these indices can be included in global drought monitoring systems and inform stakeholders such as hydropower producer and national energy agencies about the reduced energy production due to streamflow drought.