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The Arctic Ozone Hole in March 2020 and Its Seasonal Prediction in CFSv2: A Comparative Study with the 1997 and 2011 Arctic Ozone Holes
  • Jian Rao,
  • Chaim I Garfinkel
Jian Rao
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

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Chaim I Garfinkel
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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Using reanalysis data, observations, and seasonal forecasts, the March Arctic ozone hole events in 1997, 2011, and 2020 and their predictability are compared. All of the three ozone hole events were accompanied by an extremely strong and cold polar vortex. The shape and centroid of the ozone holes are mainly controlled by the simultaneous polar vortex. The March 2020 ozone hole was displaced towards Canada and Greenland, the March 2011 ozone low was evenly distributed over the North Pole, while the 1997 ozone hole was displaceds toward Arctic Russia. The predictability of the 2011 ozone hole event is longer (1–2 months) than the other two (~1 month) possibly due to La Niña and Quasi-Biennial westerly winds, favorable for formation of a strong polar vortex. Surprisingly, an empirical model using a substitute index to forecast the Arctic ozone might be as skillful as the general circulation model with a chemistry module.
16 Nov 2020Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres volume 125 issue 21. 10.1029/2020JD033524